Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 91.939381 125.295809 188.994077 378.094555 3981.947699 NaN NaN
2024-12-22 63.657768 89.997465 145.787977 367.376292 NaN NaN NaN
2024-12-29 53.215728 77.305714 132.655800 427.389764 NaN NaN NaN
2025-01-05 45.430252 66.331407 115.114107 392.649507 NaN NaN NaN
2025-01-12 40.729203 59.983020 106.154624 403.526365 NaN NaN NaN
2025-01-19 36.284381 53.197639 93.186615 334.174991 NaN NaN NaN
2025-01-26 34.012085 50.362406 90.253122 370.409796 NaN NaN NaN
2025-02-02 32.756477 49.328675 92.050122 509.974954 NaN NaN NaN
2025-02-09 31.745681 48.594367 94.502983 817.069615 NaN NaN NaN
2025-02-16 30.656883 47.485138 95.275955 1420.553033 NaN NaN NaN
2025-02-23 29.157684 45.238656 91.180530 1516.550083 NaN NaN NaN
2025-03-02 27.373942 42.174244 83.420061 935.486134 NaN NaN NaN
2025-03-09 26.033175 40.046302 78.886442 825.438637 NaN NaN NaN
2025-03-16 24.907401 38.303954 75.399265 779.678446 NaN NaN NaN
2025-03-23 24.245246 37.530273 75.173950 1078.659230 NaN NaN NaN
2025-03-30 23.232657 35.874522 71.385304 893.675375 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-06 22.501226 34.799712 69.538387 947.730886 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-13 21.484427 33.015896 64.865775 650.662368 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-20 21.017006 32.441533 64.491996 792.566272 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-27 20.837048 32.497368 66.437611 1719.922377 NaN NaN NaN
2025-05-04 20.688212 32.608369 68.678009 NaN NaN NaN NaN
2025-05-11 20.445606 32.475892 69.951292 NaN NaN NaN NaN
2025-05-18 19.951082 31.705747 68.390062 NaN NaN NaN NaN